AFC South Division Predictions: Ceiling & Floor Analysis for Each Team
Editor's note: Michael Plundo is an incoming junior at Texas Tech studying Sports Management and spending his second semester as an intern at 600 ESPN El Paso. He is an aspiring sports journalist. Throughout the final few weeks of his internship, Michael will be diving into each NFL division to give his outlook on each team, with the ceiling and floor for each franchise. In his seventh edition of the series, Michael previews the AFC South below.
The AFC South is set for an exciting season with the Texans aiming to defend their title, a healthy Anthony Richardson boosting the Colts, Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars seeking a rebound, and the Titans adjusting to a new head coach. Expect a thrilling blend of emerging talent and growth pains.
Houston Texans
- Record: 10-7 (2023) - Overall finish: Lost in Divisional Round
- Division placement: 1st - Head Coach: Demeco Ryans (2nd season)
- Offense rank: 342.4 yds/G (12/32) - Defense rank: 330.7 yds/G allowed (14/32)
Last year’s overview:
The Houston Texans have undergone a remarkable transformation, evolving from the laughing stock of the NFL just two years ago to genuine Super Bowl contenders. Hiring DeMeco Ryans was a perfect move for the team, and star quarterback C.J. Stroud had a stellar rookie season, earning Offensive Rookie of the Year honors. The Texans captured the AFC South and secured a playoff spot for the first time since the 2019-2020 season. They dominated the Browns in the Wild Card round but were defeated by the top-seeded Ravens in the Divisional round. Houston is buzzing with excitement, and General Manager Nick Caserio has only added to the joy.
New Additions:
The 2024 offseason goal for Houston became clear: build around Stroud while he's still on his rookie contract. The team focused on surrounding him with star talent to make a serious Super Bowl push, and that’s exactly what they set out to do. After establishing himself as a dependable option in the passing game, wide receiver Noah Brown re-signed with Houston on a one-year deal. However, durability remains a concern, as Brown missed seven games last season. Punter Cam Johnston left for Pittsburgh in free agency, but Houston found an excellent replacement in Tommy Townsend. Townsend, a former 2022 First Team All-Pro, signed a two-year, $6 million deal with the team, and placekicker Ka’imi Fairbairn was re-signed to a three-year, $15.9 million deal.
Another dependable target is returning as tight end Dalton Schultz re-signed with Houston on a three-year, $36 million deal. Schultz, who finished third on the team in receiving yards, was a key target for Stroud. Breakout receiver Nico Collins secured a three-year, $72.75 million contract with $52 million guaranteed. Coming off a standout season with 1,297 receiving yards and eight touchdowns, Collins was set to enter the final year of his previous deal. Houston’s offense just became significantly more explosive. The team traded for former Bengals running back Joe Mixon to replace Devin Singletary, who signed with the Giants. Mixon should prove to be an upgrade. The big move, however, was acquiring star receiver Stefon Diggs from Buffalo in exchange for a 2025 second-round pick—a fleece by General Manager Nick Caserio. Offensive Coordinator Bobby Slowik must be thrilled, knowing he’ll be working with this revamped lineup.
Houston welcomed new faces to the defense as former Vikings edge rusher Danielle Hunter agreed to a two-year, $49 million contract. Hunter should give the Texans pass rush a boost, coming off a 16-sack season, with Jonathan Greenard leaving for Minnesota, this was a perfect fit and he will start alongside defensive rookie of the year Will Anderson Jr. The Texans revamped their defensive line this offseason, trading Maliek Collins to San Francisco. They welcomed veteran players Folorunso Fatukasi (from the Jaguars) and Mario Edwards (from the Seahawks) on minimum contracts, both of whom are expected to start on the defensive line. Linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair has signed a three-year, $34 million deal with the Texans, reuniting with head coach DeMeco Ryans after their previous stint with the 49ers. Al-Shaair is set to help fill the gap left by Blake Cashman’s departure. Desmond King was brought back to solidify the nickel cornerback position and former 2020 top-ten picks Jeff Okudah and C.J. Henderson signed one-year deals to help add more cornerback depth. In the draft, the Texans' first pick came in the second round after trading their 2024 first-round pick last year to move up for Anderson Jr. Caserio selected Georgia cornerback Kamari Lassiter, who is projected to start alongside Derek Stingley Jr. on the outside. Blake Fisher, a second-round tackle from Notre Dame, has the potential to develop into a future starter, thanks to the impressive consistency he demonstrated during his time with the Fighting Irish.
Burning Questions for HOU:
The atmosphere in Houston is electric, with fans eagerly anticipating the upcoming season. Stroud is poised to prove that his impressive rookie campaign was no fluke and is ready to help unleash the team's full potential.
Can Houston make a run for the Super Bowl?
Will Stefon Diggs maintain the same level of production with Stroud as he did with Josh Allen in Buffalo?
The Texans dominated the Browns in the 2024 wild card ending Joe Flacco’s magical run. Reigning MVP Lamar Jackson and the Ravens’ elite defense were too much for the Texans. Houston has made significant roster improvements, creating a strong case for why this team could challenge contenders like the Chiefs, Ravens, and Bengals. Stroud caught the attention of the league and he is on a mission this season to establish himself as an elite quarterback in the NFL.
Diggs was a standout acquisition for the Texans, and he's aiming to replicate the impressive production he achieved with Allen as he teams up with Stroud. However, with rising star Tank Dell returning from an injury-shortened rookie season, Mixon in the backfield, and pass-catchers like Collins and Schultz on board, there are questions about whether Diggs will remain the focal point of the offense. Some might also wonder if his attitude could become a problem in the locker room and ruin team chemistry.
The Texans have found themselves out of the basement and are looked at as a force. Ryans and Stroud are eager to pick up where they left off, and the defense is ready to prove themselves with an enhanced roster for a team that won 10 games last season, keep an eye on these Texans.
Ceiling/Floor:
Ceiling: 13-4
Floor: 9-8
Jacksonville Jaguars:
- Record: 9-8 (2023) - Overall finish: Did not qualify for playoffs
- Division placement: 2nd - Head Coach: Doug Pederson (3rd season)
- Offense rank: 339.5 yds/G (13/32) - Defense rank: 342.8 yds/G allowed (22/32)
Last year’s overview:
The Jaguars' comeback from a 27-0 deficit in the 2023 wild card game was truly remarkable, but their late-season collapse was far less impressive. The Jags lost five of their last six games and as a result, missed out on the AFC South title and the playoffs. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence dealt with injuries, and inconsistent play from the cornerbacks and offensive line also did Jacksonville no favors. A disappointment, to say the least, general manager Trent Baalke and head coach Doug Pederson had a lot of work to do to help rebound from a disastrous collapse.
New Additions:
Despite last season's disappointment and some uneven play from the quarterback, Lawrence still secured a massive payday—a five-year, $275 million extension. T-Law played a crucial role in getting the Jaguars' first playoff win since 2018 and ranked second in total expected points added and sixth in passing success rate last season. The organization is counting on him to lead them to a future Super Bowl. The Jags parted ways with receiver Calvin Ridley, who departed for division-rival Tennessee. While Ridley had a solid season in Jacksonville, his eventual ultimately priced him out of the team's plans.
To add to the receiving corps, ex-Bills receiver Gabe Davis agreed to a three-year, $39 million giving the team an outside receiver. At just 25 years old, known for his ability to win 50-50 balls, a valuable asset for Lawrence. Former Ravens wide receiver Devin Duvernay signed a two-year contract, providing solid depth, and is expected to handle both punt and kick return duties. Acquired midseason from Minnesota, guard Ezra Cleveland has agreed to a three-year deal with the Jags, aiming to boost a run game that faltered last season. Additionally, veteran center Mitch Morse signed a two-year, $10.5 million contract, providing a reliable option for the offensive line. Shifting focus to the defense, the Jaguars signed defensive lineman Arik Armstead to a three-year, $51 million contract. Given that the defensive line was a weakness for Jacksonville, adding Armstead to the mix with Travon Walker and Joshua Hines-Allen—who combined for 27.5 sacks last season—could significantly enhance the pass rush.
In the secondary, the Jags signed ex-Packers safety Darnell Savage to a three-year deal, who will serve as former safety Rayshawn Jenkins’ replacement lining up next to free safety Andre Cisco. Cornerback Ronald Darby is coming over from Baltimore on a two-year deal, a corner who will start on the outside will likely replace Darious Williams who departed back to the Rams. Darby was sixth in the league for passer rating allowed and had the lowest average target separation last season, but he has been searching for his first interception since 2019. In the draft, Baalke made a great selection in drafting former LSU wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr, in the first round, he will fit well with running back Travis Etienne Jr, fellow receivers Christian Kirk, Davis now in the mix, and tight end Evan Engram. Keep an eye on mid-round picks like Maason Smith, a defensive tackle from LSU, and Jarrian Jones, a defensive back from Florida State. Both players could have a significant impact, addressing key positions of need for Jacksonville.
Burning Questions for JAX:
The Jaguars' late-season collapse was disheartening, especially given their impressive performance as the 2022-23 AFC South champions and their remarkable comeback from a 27-0 deficit in the wild-card round. However, they've been proactive in free agency and have added promising talent through the draft, setting the stage for a potential bounce-back season.
Can the Jaguars still compete for an AFC South title?
Is Trevor Lawrence the guy to lead Jacksonville to the promised land?
The reigning AFC South Champs Houston Texans also had a good free agency as they upgraded on offense and are looking to cement themselves among the NFL’s elite. However, the Jags proved back in November of last season they could compete with Houston after beating them 24-21 in NRG stadium, recovering from a 20-point loss to them in week 3. Lawrence versus Stroud should be fun to watch, but teams like the Colts and Titans should not be ignored, given the Titans were the reason the Jags missed the playoffs last season.
Lawrence, a former 2021 number-one overall pick enjoyed a breakout season in 2022-23 following a disastrous rookie season. His past season was not anything bad, but nothing like his breakout season, and he saw his numbers drop. With how crazy the quarterback market has been, it was no surprise to see Lawrence the big bucks but after missing the playoffs, many have their doubts that he can help win this team a Lombardi trophy.
Lawrence is no stranger to bouncing back and given the additions to the offense in free agency, the pieces are there for T-Law to remind everybody he is still a good quarterback. If the Jags' defense can generate more pressure on opposing quarterbacks and the offense maintains consistency, there is no doubt this team will be in the playoff mix.
Ceiling/Floor:
Ceiling: 12-5, Floor: 9-8
Indianapolis Colts
- Record: 9-8 (2023) - Overall finish: Did not qualify for playoffs
- Division placement: 3rd - Head Coach: Shane Steichen (2nd season)
- Offense rank: 336.8 yds/G (15/32) - Defense rank: 349.8 yds/G allowed (24/32)
Last year’s overview:
Following a 4-12-1 record from 2022-23, the Colts improved to 9-8 and were even fighting for a playoff spot in the final weeks of the season. Head coach Shane Steichen in his first season did a solid job despite the adversity the team went through such as rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson’s season being cut short due to injury. Wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. was exceptional for the Colts, standing out as their top offensive player. His 28.5% target share was one of the highest in the NFL, highlighting his pivotal role and impact on the team's offense. Although, the team missed the playoffs for the third straight season, with Steichen leading the way there is reason for optimism moving forward.
New Additions:
After being placed on the franchise tag, Pittman Jr. and the organization were able to come to terms on a three-year, $70 million deal. A good move by general manager Chris Ballard and he will serve as the team’s number-one receiver for the next couple of seasons. Another key re-signing was defensive lineman Grover Stewart who is returning on a three-year, $39 million deal. He and Deforest Buckner played well together and when Stewart was on the field, Indy’s run defense performed better. Linebacker Zaire Franklin re-signed with the Colts on a three-year, $31.26 million deal, a durable player who is an important part of Gus Bradley’s defense and has only gotten better each year, he and E.J. Speed paired nicely together. Indy was able to retain an experienced cornerback Kenny Moore II on a three-year, $30 million extension which gives the Colts versatility and solidifies the slot cornerback position.
Guys like defensive end Tyquan Lewis and safety Julian Blackmon were also brought back, two players who had solid performances last season. Staying on the defense, the Colts signed ex-Dolphins defensive tackle Raekwon Davis to a two-year, $14 million deal, a former 2020 second-round pick. Davis comes with starting experience and gives the team another option in the trenches. Backup quarterback Gardner Minshew, who stepped in due to Richardson’s injury, performed admirably during his time with the team but moved on to the Raiders. Realizing how important the backup quarterback position was, the Colts signed 39-year-old Joe Flacco to a one-year deal to back Richardson, the reigning comeback player of the year. He was a big reason why the Browns made the playoffs and performed solidly in place of Deshaun Watson. Flacco will also provide mentorship which can be beneficial to Richardson who is entering his second year.
Ballard did not make big moves during free agency but was able to pick up some good talent from the draft. First-round pick Laiatu Latu, an edge rusher from UCLA, is expected to bring much-needed consistency to the Colts' pass rush, a unit that has struggled with inconsistency. A 2023 All-America and Lombardi Award winner, not only is Latu's 23.5 sacks over the past two seasons the nation’s top total, but his 20% pressure rate last season was the second-best in the country. A steal came in the second round when Ballard picked Adonai Mitchell, a receiver from Texas who scored 11 touchdowns last season, the speedy receiver will give Richardson a solid option. Fourth-round selection Tanor Bortolini, an offensive lineman from Wisconsin could eventually become a starter, but will likely serve as depth for the time being.
Burning Questions for IND:
Injuries and Stewart’s six-game suspension had an impact on why the Colts struggled in some areas such as run defense and consistency. Second-year quarterback Anthony Richardson is looking to prove himself after missing 13 games last season due to shoulder surgery. Before getting hurt, he showcased his mobility and his ability to avoid sacks, something Steichen and offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter are going to want to see more of.
Will Richardson’s injuries hold him back?
Make or break for Kwity Paye?
There's no denying that Richardson has talent and tons of potential. However, his injuries could hold him back and may affect his play this upcoming season. Despite his shoulder injury, he dealt with a concussion in week 2 last season, he returned in week 4. This situation isn't unfamiliar for the Colts, who have previously dealt with injury-prone quarterbacks, notably Andrew Luck. The 2014 NFL passing touchdown leader retired before the 2019 season due to a series of injuries throughout his career. Owner Jim Irsay and the organization are hoping Richardson's situation does not mirror that of Luck.
Colts 2021 first-round pick Kwity Paye, a defensive end had a slow start to his career but seems to be making progress. His 2023-24 campaign was an improvement from his first two seasons, he tallied 8.5 sacks, 52 tackles, and two forced fumbles. With Latu now in the fold and other pass rushers looking to show what they can bring to the table, Paye may need to better his performance from this past season.
The Colts boast a talented roster and managed to stay in the playoff hunt for most of the season, even while relying on a backup quarterback. As Richardson returns, he will be supported by a strong offensive lineup that includes running back Jonathan Taylor, wide receiver Pittman Jr., second-year standout Josh Downs, and the addition of Mitchell. The offensive line, anchored by star guard Quenton Nelson, is solid, while the defense features a dynamic duo of Buckner and Stewart, promising cornerback Julius Brents, veteran Moore II in the secondary, and the tackling machine Franklin. If this Colts team can manage to stay healthy, and Richardson breaks out the sky is the limit for this team.
Ceiling/Floor:
Ceiling: 12-5
Floor: 9-8
Tennessee Titans
- Record: 6-11 (2023) - Overall finish: Did not qualify for playoffs
- Division placement: 4th - Head Coach: Brian Callahan (1st season)
- Offense rank: 289.0 yds/G (28/32) - Defense rank: 335.1 yds/G allowed (18/32)
Last year’s overview:
The Tennessee Titans 2023-24 season was filled with inconsistencies and injuries. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill missed some time with an injury, but is not the same quarterback he used to be leading him and the organization to part ways. Rookie quarterback Will Levis saw playing time and put up solid performances but dealt with rookie growing pains. The offensive line was a major issue for Tennessee and was a big part of why the offense struggled. The Titans were eliminated from playoff contention by week 15, no question that general manager Ran Carthon had a lot of work to do to help get the Titans on the right path.
New Additions:
A six-year tenure has ended with former head coach Mike Vrabel, who was fired two days after the final regular season game. It was a bit of a surprise given the positive reports and relationships Vrabel had built with the team, but the Titans have missed the playoffs two years in a row now and their last playoff win was back in 2020, it was time for a change. Former Bengals offensive coordinator Brian Callahan was hired as the team’s head coach, he had been with Cincy since 2019 and worked with players like Joe Burrow and Jamarr Chase. Callahan will now be in charge and owner Amy Strunk is counting on him to get this team back on track.
Another long-time Titan has departed, as running back Derrick Henry signed with the Ravens. This is a significant loss for the team, given that Henry, who had been with the Titans since 2016, was a two-time rushing yards leader, 2020 offensive player of the year, and a two-time rushing touchdowns leader. With a plethora of cap space and a need for a running back, the team signed former Cowboy Tony Pollard to a three-year, $24 million contract. Pollard is not on Henry’s level but Pollard and Tyjae Spears should form a solid one-two punch. Center Aaron Brewer signed with Miami in free agency, but Tennessee was able to get an upgrade at the position after signing former Broncos center Lloyd Cushenberry to a four-year, $50 million deal with $26 million guaranteed. Cushenberry is only 26 years old and allowed two sacks and 16 pressures last season, a solid add by Carthon. The Titans also signed guard Saahdiq Charles to a one-year deal. Previously with Washington, Charles offers valuable versatility, having played both left and right guard. He is also a former LSU teammate of Cushenberry. Tennessee came away winners from the Calvin Ridley sweepstakes as the receiver agreed to a massive four-year, $92 million deal with $52 million guaranteed, giving Levis another legit option at receiver. Ridley, former Jags receiver posted 1,016 receiving yards and eight touchdowns last season and will join a receiving corps of Deandre Hopkins, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine who re-signed on a one-year deal, and Tyler Boyd who agreed to a one-year deal coming over from Cincinnati, reuniting with Callahan.
On the defensive side, inside linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair signed a three-year deal with division rival Houston, leaving a significant void at the linebacker position for the Titans. Former 2020 first-round pick, linebacker Kenneth Murray Jr. agreed to a two-year, $18 million deal who will likely replace Al-Shaair. Murray was inconsistent with the Chargers, but is coming off his best season who had over 100 tackles with three sacks and four pass breakups. Cornerback became a critical need for Tennessee with former players Sean Murphy-Bunting and Kristian Fulton signing with other teams. To address this, the Titans signed former Bengals cornerback Chidobe Awuzie to a three-year, $25.5 million deal, with $17.5 million guaranteed. Awuzie, recognized for his skills in both pass coverage and run defense, is anticipated to be deployed in various roles by defensive coordinator Dennard Wilson, who values versatile defenders. However, at 29 years old, Awuzie's career-high for interceptions in a season stands at just two. Former Seahawks safeties Jamal Adams and Quandre Diggs each signed one-year deals with the team. The chemistry they developed in Seattle could prove crucial in strengthening the defensive backfield. Carthon hit a home run after acquiring cornerback L’Jarius Sneed from Kansas City for a swap of seventh-round picks and a 2025 third-round pick. Sneed immediately agreed to a four-year, $76.4 million deal with the Titans, a great trade by Carthon as Sneed ranked fifth in pass breakups and sixth in passer rating against when targeted.
Other signings included former Chargers defensive tackle Sebastian Joseph-Day to a one-year deal who could form a solid duo with star defensive lineman Jeffrey Simmons. Former Steelers quarterback Mason Rudolph signed a one-year deal with the Titans. As a six-year veteran, Rudolph will bring valuable experience and serve as a solid backup, providing crucial support and mentorship to a young quarterback like Levis. The Titans were active in free agency, and with good draft picks, Carthon and Callahan bolstered their roster. With the seventh overall pick, the team selected Alabama tackle JC Latham, a stellar choice given the Titans' urgent need at offensive tackle and Latham’s impressive physical presence. Second-round pick T’Vondre Sweat, a defensive tackle from Texas, was a strong selection. Sweat is an effective lineman with exceptional skills in both run and pass defense. Additionally, fourth-round pick Cedric Gray, a linebacker from North Carolina, has the potential to be a valuable find.
Burning Questions for TEN:
Credit to the Titans for addressing their roster needs to get back into the winning column. It will be a different Titans team, a team with Vrabel no longer in the mix and Tannehill as the starting quarterback.
Is Brian Callahan an upgrade over Mike Vrabel?
Is Will Levis the answer long-term?
Even though Vrabel’s last couple seasons in Tennessee were not what he and fans had hoped for, there is no denying that he is a good coach. A former coach of the year back in 2021, it will be interesting to see how Callahan does in Nashville and how the players adapt to his coaching style from Vrabel. Callahan, who was instrumental in building strong offenses in Cincinnati, is now tasked with unlocking Levis’ potential and revitalizing a Titans offense that finished in the bottom four for both yards and points per game. Titans fans are hopeful that his expertise will lead to significant improvements.
Levis showed promise during his rookie season, notably in his debut against Atlanta, where he threw four touchdown passes and accumulated 238 yards. This performance made him only the third player in NFL history to throw four touchdown passes in his first game. The pieces are there for him to break out in his second season with a young offensive-minded coach, Hopkins and Ridley as his top receivers, an improved offensive line, and the running back duo of Pollard and Spears.
It has been a rough two seasons in Nashville and Titans fans are hoping for a season similar to 2021-22 where the team finished as the AFC’s number one seed. While the Titans face slim odds for an AFC South title, a breakout season from Levis and improvements to the offensive line could make a wild card spot a real possibility.
Ceiling/Floor:
Ceiling: 11-6
Floor: 8-9
Locomotive FC Drop 2-1 to New Mexico United
Gallery Credit: By Evan Rubio